The Economic Structure Reshaped by the Middle East War: A 'Compound Crisis' Materializes as Energy, Supply Chains, and Finance Are Shaken at Once

The essence of this situation is not a "rise in oil prices" but a structural transmission of risk that ripples throughout the economy as a whole.

(1) Energy Risk

Rising international oil prices lead to increased industrial production costs, higher logistics costs, and pressure on electricity and public utility charges, directly affecting the manufacturing and transportation industries in particular.

(2) Supply Chain Risk

Instability in the supply and demand of key raw materials, such as naphtha (roughly 70% dependence on the Middle East) and urea (a fertilizer feedstock), is materializing.

This is spreading across the chemical industry, fertilizer and agriculture, and manufacturing as a whole.

In particular, as naphtha prices have surged by more than 60% over a short period, the cost structure of the petrochemical and plastics industries as a whole is rapidly deteriorating.

(3) Industry and Corporate Risk

For small and medium-sized export enterprises, transportation disruptions, increased logistics costs, and rising raw material prices are occurring at the same time, accelerating the deterioration of profitability.

This may lead to risks in contract performance and to liquidity crises.

(4) Livelihood and Social Risk

A high oil price environment directly affects small business owners (increased energy costs), farmers and fishers (rising fertilizer and raw material costs), and ordinary citizens (rising cost of living), acting as a factor that deepens economic polarization.

The government is implementing immediate price stabilization measures through an expanded reduction of the fuel tax and a price ceiling system.

• Gasoline: a reduction of roughly 15%
• Diesel: a reduction of roughly 25% (taking industrial impact into account)
• Period of application: March 27, 2026 - May 31

This policy has a substantial price stabilization effect, but it simultaneously carries the structural limitations of price distortion and an increased fiscal burden.

In addition, the government is directly curbing the rise in logistics costs by raising the payment ratio of the fuel-linked subsidy for freight and buses from 50% to 70%.

To ease energy supply and demand instability, the government is carrying out the following measures in parallel.

Supply Side

• Pursuing the securing of 24 million barrels of UAE crude oil
• Preparing for the release of internationally co-stockpiled oil
• Concluding LNG swap contracts
• Expanding nuclear power plant utilization to 80% or higher

Demand Side

• A five-day rotation system for public institution vehicles
• Mandatory corporate energy conservation plans
• An electricity use reduction campaign

To respond to the supply chain situation, the government established a 'Supply Chain Crisis Response Headquarters' and put it into operation immediately.

Its key features are as follows.

Strengthened Governance

• Establishing a pan-government response system centered on the Deputy Prime Minister for the Economy
• Daily situation monitoring and response

Focused Management of Key Items

• Naphtha: designated as a crisis item
• Urea: prohibition of hoarding and speculative withholding
• Non-ferrous metals: expanded stockpiling

Financial Support

• Operating a supply chain fund of KRW 1.5 trillion
• Interest rate support of up to -2.3 percentage points
• Reducing the review period by up to three weeks (fast track)

Unlike before, this is significant in that it is an integrated response combining policy finance, supply chain measures, and diplomatic response.

The government is expanding large-scale policy finance for affected enterprises.

• An additional supply of policy finance totaling KRW 4 trillion or more
• Interest rate reductions of up to -2.2 percentage points for export enterprises
• A twofold expansion of logistics cost support (up to KRW 60 million)

In addition, tailored responses by industry are being carried out in parallel.

• Shipping: emergency operating fund support
• Aviation: deferral of financial improvement orders
• Construction: legal support for construction cost disputes
• Procurement enterprises: eased adjustment of contract amounts

To stabilize the financial markets, an emergency bond market buyback (KRW 5 trillion), a market stabilization program on the scale of KRW 100 trillion, and 24-hour monitoring of the foreign exchange market are being carried out in parallel.

In particular, the policy includes strong enforcement against stock price manipulation, fake news, and the like, and its scope has been expanded to encompass the maintenance of market confidence.

This Middle East war is a compound economic crisis in which energy, supply chains, and finance are at work simultaneously.

The government is attempting to mitigate the shock through an all-out response, but the success or failure of the actual risk response rests on the strategic response of individual enterprises.

Accordingly, the present moment can be seen as a time that calls for a comprehensive realignment of the management structure, encompassing energy strategy, supply chain structure, and financial risk, going beyond short-term cost cutting or response.

In a compound economic crisis such as this Middle East war, cost management or short-term measures alone are not sufficient, and legal risk management spanning energy, supply chains, finance, and contracts as a whole must be carried out in parallel.

In particular, surging raw material prices, delivery delays, and transportation disruptions may lead to contractual disputes, liability for damages, and assertions of force majeure, so establishing a proactive response system is important.

Daeryun Law Firm LLP comprehensively analyzes an enterprise's industrial structure and transaction patterns and provides integrated legal solutions across the whole of corporate operations, as follows.

• Diagnosing supply chain risk and redesigning contract structures
• Responding to disputes related to raw material price fluctuations and delivery delays
• Legal advisory for utilizing policy finance and government support programs
• Reviewing financial contract risk arising from exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations
• Establishing strategies for force majeure and contract interpretation in global transactions

In addition, in a situation where policy changes and the regulatory environment shift rapidly, as they do at present, it is important to link the direction of the government's response with corporate strategy, and Daeryun, based on its analysis of policy and legislative trends, presents tailored response strategies for enterprises and, where necessary, carries out comprehensive advisory that includes government relations and regulatory risk management.

Ultimately, in such a compound crisis, 'advance design' rather than 'after-the-fact response' serves as the key factor that determines the scale of an enterprise's losses, so enterprises need to carry out systematic legal review and response strategies in parallel from the early stages.

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